Last week, among the market's volatile consolidation, the pharmaceutical sector became one of the bright spots in the market with excellent performance. The weekly gain reached 4.74%, ranking the forefront of each sector. Last week, the Shanghai index fell by 0.58%. The Shenzhen Stock Index rose by 1.98%, far outperforming the broader market. According to statistics, since last year, the pharmaceutical sector has been relatively strong relative to the A-share trend. Since the beginning of the year to the present, the pharmaceutical sector has basically outperformed the broader market, even as it has been slightly higher during the broader market volatility.
Affected by multiple factors such as the growth of the external economic environment, the introduction of favorable policies, the increase in people's health care needs, and the speculation of short-term unexpected events, the pharmaceutical sector in 2010 has seen a strong rise. For the development of the pharmaceutical industry in 2011, the market agreed that the development theme of the pharmaceutical industry is still growing, and it is optimistic about the long-term development prospects of the industry.
Both the offensive and defensive characteristics are favored by funds. According to statistics, the cumulative net inflow of funds from the two cities last week was 25.9 billion yuan, a substantial increase from the net inflow of 4.8 billion yuan last week.
Statistics show that since last week, the capital inflow from the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector reached 2.962 billion yuan, ranking second in capital inflows.
The blitz of funds has undoubtedly caused many pharmaceutical stocks prices to rise again and again, emboldened. According to statistics, most of the stocks that have flowed into the top 10 funds have more than 10% weekly gains. Huashen Group (000790) also became the star of the medical sector last week and was also more concerned by the entire market. Last week, Huashen Group’s net inflow of funds was 740 million yuan, with a weekly gain of 47.31%. The amount of capital inflow from the medical sector was the highest, followed by Hyundai Pharmaceutical (600420); Fengyuan Biochemical (000930); Puluo shares (000739); Guangzhou Pharmaceuticals Connbay (600572); Zixin Pharmaceutical (002118); Tailong Pharmaceutical (600222); Jiuzhitang; Tibetan Medicine (600211).
At present, the static price-earnings ratio of the pharmaceutical sector is about 48 times. Considering that a number of enterprises in the newly-developed fine-molecule industry landed on the GEM, the overall valuation of the sector has been pushed up to a certain extent. Haitong Securities (600837) believes that the growth prospects of the pharmaceutical industry are relatively certain. The absolute value of P/E ratio is not high, but the division within the industry will still appear. The current absolute valuation level is relatively reasonable, Guangzhou Securities also believes, but the relatively large premium level is always at a high level. Judging from the market situation in the past two years, the market began to gradually pay attention to the performance of pharmaceutical stocks, and the pharmaceutical sector is often independent of the broader market to get out of a relatively independent market.
The rapid development of the industry will exceed 1 trillion yuan in market size. According to statistics, in 2009 the total output value of China's pharmaceutical manufacturing industry has achieved 944.330 billion yuan, the market is expected to achieve 1,256 billion yuan and 1,545 billion yuan in 2010 and 2011, respectively, over the past decade The growth rate remained above 20%. From the decade of 2000-2009, the total assets and profits of China's pharmaceutical manufacturing industry have cumulatively increased by 654.243 billion yuan and 85.738 billion yuan respectively, accounting for the proportion of total national assets and national total profits. Basically, it stays at 2% or more; while the overall scale and supply capacity of the pharmaceutical industry are growing, the sales scale and consumer demand of the pharmaceutical market are also increasing.
In 2008, the added value of the pharmaceutical industry was 791.3 billion yuan, an increase of 18% over the same period of last year. Under the premise that the new medical reform government increased investment, the industry cake will grow bigger and bigger. Haitong Securities is expected to maintain double-digit growth if it maintains 14 The growth rate of % is likely to exceed 1 trillion yuan in 2010 and it may reach nearly 2 trillion yuan by 2015.
As of September 2010, the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry achieved cumulative sales of 796.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%, and the growth rate remained at a relatively high level. Guangzhou Securities is expected to increase by 24.9% year-on-year, and is expected to grow at a rate of 22%-25% year-on-year in 2011. It is expected that profit growth in 2011 will be maintained at 25%-30%.
According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to August 2010, the total income and total profits of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry reached 697.6 billion yuan and 71.8 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of 25.69% and 34.71% respectively. As of October 2010, the value added of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry increased by 15.3% over the same period of the previous year, with a cumulative increase of 15.1% over the same period of the previous year. Data from the past three months showed that the accumulative value-added growth rate of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry increased month by month, while the cumulative growth rate of industrial added value continued to decrease month by month. One litre and one drop show the relatively high boom of the pharmaceutical industry. At the same time, through comparison, it can be seen that the accumulated year-on-year growth rate of the value-added of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry has shown relatively stable growth and low volatility even in the global economic crisis relative to the industrial added value. Overall, the pharmaceutical industry has grown rapidly and steadily.
Pay attention to the multiple factors of structural adjustment Supporting the development of the industry For the long-term development of the pharmaceutical industry, the market unanimously believes that it is optimistic about the long-term development prospects of the industry, and the opportunity for the structural adjustment of the industry in the short-to-medium-term attention to ageing, urbanization, and the health insurance system supports the long-term development of the industry. prospect. In the short to medium term, many factors will cause structural changes within the pharmaceutical industry. The Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Structural Adjustment of the Pharmaceutical Industry clearly defined the structural adjustment objectives and measures. The key contents were to support innovation and technology upgrading, promote mergers and acquisitions, and increase industry concentration.
First, the ageing, urbanization, and health insurance systems have soundly supported the industry's long-term development prospects. The main foundation for supporting the “Golden Decade of the Pharmaceutical Industry†or the rapid growth of pharmaceutical demand in the next decade in China is the doubling of the demand for medicines brought about by the accelerated aging of the population, the spectrum of diseases brought about by urbanization, and changes in lifestyles. There are several factors such as the improvement of medical payment ability brought about by the health insurance system. In 2008, China’s population aged over 65 accounted for 8.3%, indicating that China has reached an ageing society. We expect that the growth rate of aging will be faster than the growth rate of the total population, and the aging trend is increasing. The consumption of medicine in the elderly stage accounts for more than 80% of one's life. Therefore, the elderly are the main force of medicine consumption, and aging is an important factor driving the demand for medicine.
Second, the impact of public hospital reforms on the pharmaceutical industry. If the new healthcare reform is successful, the rules of the game in the entire pharmaceutical industry will change, the current marketing model will be disrupted, and the current state of the product function will allow the value-added state to end. Some companies that adapt to the policy environment will come to the fore. The benefits of pharmaceutical companies may be reduced first and then increased.
Third, the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Structural Adjustment of the Pharmaceutical Industry" clearly defined the objectives and measures for structural adjustment. Market participants believe that industry concentration will increase significantly in the next few years, and small companies will speed up their exit. Leading companies will obviously benefit. The policy is good for the pharmaceutical industry, especially for large-scale generic pharmaceutical companies, innovative pharmaceutical companies, modern Chinese medicine companies, and biopharmaceutical companies with core technologies.
Fourth, the 12th Five-Year Plan of the pharmaceutical industry focuses on the promotion of medical reform and capacity building for innovation. The contents related to the pharmaceutical industry in the "Proposal for Formulating the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" are summed up mainly on the one hand, medical reform, on the other hand, to enhance innovation capabilities.
Fifth, the implementation of the new GMP and new pharmacopoeia will help eliminate backward production capacity. The new version of GMP is close to the EU standard cGMP. The market believes that the launch of the new version of GMP will help eliminate backward production capacity. For partially outdated production capacity, the transformation of the existing production line is almost impossible. In recent years, enterprises with newly-built workshops are relatively favorable. On the one hand, it is easy to carry out transformations. On the other hand, some companies themselves are building with reference to European and American standards.
Finally, mergers and acquisitions restructured the company's rapid growth to resolve valuation pressures. Mergers and acquisitions among enterprises are becoming an irreversible trend in the current and future markets. Reshuffling within the industry will continue, and eventually the industry will become more concentrated and the structure will become more rational.
Growth is the main theme Melody within the industry Differentiation Bohai Securities believes that China's drug R&D focuses on innovation, because the entire pharmaceutical sector has been high, and the future will only be resolved by the company's high growth and innovation. There are three reasons: New drug innovation and results transformation has always been the source of vitality of the pharmaceutical industry; the new pharmacopoeia standard aims to promote the survival of the fittest, and the market position of dominant enterprises will become even more prominent; the current domestic environment is conducive to the innovation and development of pharmaceutical companies, and the state encourages innovation in policies.
The medical sector has always maintained the characteristics of both offensive and defensive features. It has been favored by investors and its valuation has been at a high level. It has recently regained higher excess returns. Haitong Securities believes that taking into account changes in the macro-currency level, it will lead to cyclical and acyclical cycles. With the rotation of the sex sector, and medical reform, aging, and policy promotion, growth is the main theme of the pharmaceutical industry. Internal differentiation will occur again. Companies with technological advantages, import substitution, and small negative impacts on policies will continue to be strong. It is recommended that investors focus on Concerned about the following types of companies: anti-inflation, unique business model, integration of the upstream and downstream of the Chinese Herbal Pieces leader: Kangmei Pharmaceutical (600518); patent expires, anesthetic specialists generic drugs: human welfare medicine (600,079), Enhua Pharmaceutical (002262); High-end imported alternative medical devices: Lepu Medical (300003); animal drug market leader: Ripu Bio (300119); low valuation, favorable medical reform policy: Harbin Pharmaceutical (600664); regional pharmaceutical business leader, national Expansion: Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (601607); Modernization of Traditional Chinese Medicine: Tasly (600535); Enjoying Third End business model GEM companies: Hong Chi Pharmaceutical (300086); biopharmaceutical, enjoy policy support: SL Pharmaceutical (002038).
In response to the medical reform policy, Guangzhou Securities considers it possible to pay attention. One is to invest in an essential drug list, especially one of its exclusive varieties. For example, Zhongheng Group (600252), Renfu Pharmaceutical, and Shuanghe Pharmaceutical (600062) have 11 essential drugs. Listed companies with exclusive catalogs will benefit mainly; the other direction is to select areas with low policy risks, such as the OTC area where Conba, Jiang Medicine (600750) is located, and the circulation area where Intel Group (000411) and Shanghai Pharmaceutical are located. .
Affected by multiple factors such as the growth of the external economic environment, the introduction of favorable policies, the increase in people's health care needs, and the speculation of short-term unexpected events, the pharmaceutical sector in 2010 has seen a strong rise. For the development of the pharmaceutical industry in 2011, the market agreed that the development theme of the pharmaceutical industry is still growing, and it is optimistic about the long-term development prospects of the industry.
Both the offensive and defensive characteristics are favored by funds. According to statistics, the cumulative net inflow of funds from the two cities last week was 25.9 billion yuan, a substantial increase from the net inflow of 4.8 billion yuan last week.
Statistics show that since last week, the capital inflow from the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector reached 2.962 billion yuan, ranking second in capital inflows.
The blitz of funds has undoubtedly caused many pharmaceutical stocks prices to rise again and again, emboldened. According to statistics, most of the stocks that have flowed into the top 10 funds have more than 10% weekly gains. Huashen Group (000790) also became the star of the medical sector last week and was also more concerned by the entire market. Last week, Huashen Group’s net inflow of funds was 740 million yuan, with a weekly gain of 47.31%. The amount of capital inflow from the medical sector was the highest, followed by Hyundai Pharmaceutical (600420); Fengyuan Biochemical (000930); Puluo shares (000739); Guangzhou Pharmaceuticals Connbay (600572); Zixin Pharmaceutical (002118); Tailong Pharmaceutical (600222); Jiuzhitang; Tibetan Medicine (600211).
At present, the static price-earnings ratio of the pharmaceutical sector is about 48 times. Considering that a number of enterprises in the newly-developed fine-molecule industry landed on the GEM, the overall valuation of the sector has been pushed up to a certain extent. Haitong Securities (600837) believes that the growth prospects of the pharmaceutical industry are relatively certain. The absolute value of P/E ratio is not high, but the division within the industry will still appear. The current absolute valuation level is relatively reasonable, Guangzhou Securities also believes, but the relatively large premium level is always at a high level. Judging from the market situation in the past two years, the market began to gradually pay attention to the performance of pharmaceutical stocks, and the pharmaceutical sector is often independent of the broader market to get out of a relatively independent market.
The rapid development of the industry will exceed 1 trillion yuan in market size. According to statistics, in 2009 the total output value of China's pharmaceutical manufacturing industry has achieved 944.330 billion yuan, the market is expected to achieve 1,256 billion yuan and 1,545 billion yuan in 2010 and 2011, respectively, over the past decade The growth rate remained above 20%. From the decade of 2000-2009, the total assets and profits of China's pharmaceutical manufacturing industry have cumulatively increased by 654.243 billion yuan and 85.738 billion yuan respectively, accounting for the proportion of total national assets and national total profits. Basically, it stays at 2% or more; while the overall scale and supply capacity of the pharmaceutical industry are growing, the sales scale and consumer demand of the pharmaceutical market are also increasing.
In 2008, the added value of the pharmaceutical industry was 791.3 billion yuan, an increase of 18% over the same period of last year. Under the premise that the new medical reform government increased investment, the industry cake will grow bigger and bigger. Haitong Securities is expected to maintain double-digit growth if it maintains 14 The growth rate of % is likely to exceed 1 trillion yuan in 2010 and it may reach nearly 2 trillion yuan by 2015.
As of September 2010, the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry achieved cumulative sales of 796.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%, and the growth rate remained at a relatively high level. Guangzhou Securities is expected to increase by 24.9% year-on-year, and is expected to grow at a rate of 22%-25% year-on-year in 2011. It is expected that profit growth in 2011 will be maintained at 25%-30%.
According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to August 2010, the total income and total profits of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry reached 697.6 billion yuan and 71.8 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of 25.69% and 34.71% respectively. As of October 2010, the value added of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry increased by 15.3% over the same period of the previous year, with a cumulative increase of 15.1% over the same period of the previous year. Data from the past three months showed that the accumulative value-added growth rate of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry increased month by month, while the cumulative growth rate of industrial added value continued to decrease month by month. One litre and one drop show the relatively high boom of the pharmaceutical industry. At the same time, through comparison, it can be seen that the accumulated year-on-year growth rate of the value-added of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry has shown relatively stable growth and low volatility even in the global economic crisis relative to the industrial added value. Overall, the pharmaceutical industry has grown rapidly and steadily.
Pay attention to the multiple factors of structural adjustment Supporting the development of the industry For the long-term development of the pharmaceutical industry, the market unanimously believes that it is optimistic about the long-term development prospects of the industry, and the opportunity for the structural adjustment of the industry in the short-to-medium-term attention to ageing, urbanization, and the health insurance system supports the long-term development of the industry. prospect. In the short to medium term, many factors will cause structural changes within the pharmaceutical industry. The Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Structural Adjustment of the Pharmaceutical Industry clearly defined the structural adjustment objectives and measures. The key contents were to support innovation and technology upgrading, promote mergers and acquisitions, and increase industry concentration.
First, the ageing, urbanization, and health insurance systems have soundly supported the industry's long-term development prospects. The main foundation for supporting the “Golden Decade of the Pharmaceutical Industry†or the rapid growth of pharmaceutical demand in the next decade in China is the doubling of the demand for medicines brought about by the accelerated aging of the population, the spectrum of diseases brought about by urbanization, and changes in lifestyles. There are several factors such as the improvement of medical payment ability brought about by the health insurance system. In 2008, China’s population aged over 65 accounted for 8.3%, indicating that China has reached an ageing society. We expect that the growth rate of aging will be faster than the growth rate of the total population, and the aging trend is increasing. The consumption of medicine in the elderly stage accounts for more than 80% of one's life. Therefore, the elderly are the main force of medicine consumption, and aging is an important factor driving the demand for medicine.
Second, the impact of public hospital reforms on the pharmaceutical industry. If the new healthcare reform is successful, the rules of the game in the entire pharmaceutical industry will change, the current marketing model will be disrupted, and the current state of the product function will allow the value-added state to end. Some companies that adapt to the policy environment will come to the fore. The benefits of pharmaceutical companies may be reduced first and then increased.
Third, the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Structural Adjustment of the Pharmaceutical Industry" clearly defined the objectives and measures for structural adjustment. Market participants believe that industry concentration will increase significantly in the next few years, and small companies will speed up their exit. Leading companies will obviously benefit. The policy is good for the pharmaceutical industry, especially for large-scale generic pharmaceutical companies, innovative pharmaceutical companies, modern Chinese medicine companies, and biopharmaceutical companies with core technologies.
Fourth, the 12th Five-Year Plan of the pharmaceutical industry focuses on the promotion of medical reform and capacity building for innovation. The contents related to the pharmaceutical industry in the "Proposal for Formulating the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" are summed up mainly on the one hand, medical reform, on the other hand, to enhance innovation capabilities.
Fifth, the implementation of the new GMP and new pharmacopoeia will help eliminate backward production capacity. The new version of GMP is close to the EU standard cGMP. The market believes that the launch of the new version of GMP will help eliminate backward production capacity. For partially outdated production capacity, the transformation of the existing production line is almost impossible. In recent years, enterprises with newly-built workshops are relatively favorable. On the one hand, it is easy to carry out transformations. On the other hand, some companies themselves are building with reference to European and American standards.
Finally, mergers and acquisitions restructured the company's rapid growth to resolve valuation pressures. Mergers and acquisitions among enterprises are becoming an irreversible trend in the current and future markets. Reshuffling within the industry will continue, and eventually the industry will become more concentrated and the structure will become more rational.
Growth is the main theme Melody within the industry Differentiation Bohai Securities believes that China's drug R&D focuses on innovation, because the entire pharmaceutical sector has been high, and the future will only be resolved by the company's high growth and innovation. There are three reasons: New drug innovation and results transformation has always been the source of vitality of the pharmaceutical industry; the new pharmacopoeia standard aims to promote the survival of the fittest, and the market position of dominant enterprises will become even more prominent; the current domestic environment is conducive to the innovation and development of pharmaceutical companies, and the state encourages innovation in policies.
The medical sector has always maintained the characteristics of both offensive and defensive features. It has been favored by investors and its valuation has been at a high level. It has recently regained higher excess returns. Haitong Securities believes that taking into account changes in the macro-currency level, it will lead to cyclical and acyclical cycles. With the rotation of the sex sector, and medical reform, aging, and policy promotion, growth is the main theme of the pharmaceutical industry. Internal differentiation will occur again. Companies with technological advantages, import substitution, and small negative impacts on policies will continue to be strong. It is recommended that investors focus on Concerned about the following types of companies: anti-inflation, unique business model, integration of the upstream and downstream of the Chinese Herbal Pieces leader: Kangmei Pharmaceutical (600518); patent expires, anesthetic specialists generic drugs: human welfare medicine (600,079), Enhua Pharmaceutical (002262); High-end imported alternative medical devices: Lepu Medical (300003); animal drug market leader: Ripu Bio (300119); low valuation, favorable medical reform policy: Harbin Pharmaceutical (600664); regional pharmaceutical business leader, national Expansion: Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (601607); Modernization of Traditional Chinese Medicine: Tasly (600535); Enjoying Third End business model GEM companies: Hong Chi Pharmaceutical (300086); biopharmaceutical, enjoy policy support: SL Pharmaceutical (002038).
In response to the medical reform policy, Guangzhou Securities considers it possible to pay attention. One is to invest in an essential drug list, especially one of its exclusive varieties. For example, Zhongheng Group (600252), Renfu Pharmaceutical, and Shuanghe Pharmaceutical (600062) have 11 essential drugs. Listed companies with exclusive catalogs will benefit mainly; the other direction is to select areas with low policy risks, such as the OTC area where Conba, Jiang Medicine (600750) is located, and the circulation area where Intel Group (000411) and Shanghai Pharmaceutical are located. .
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