The country’s main garlic producing area has been sold out due to excessively low garlic prices

In the season of garlic, the price of garlic goes and the price of garlic falls to the bottom. Statistics from the new market show that the current wholesale price of garlic in Beijing is about RMB 1/kg, which is only 1/6 of the wholesale price in the same period last year.

Ma Zhaohong, the largest garlic wholesaler in the new market, predicts that garlic prices will continue to fall this year. “Before the hot weather of September, garlic must be taken out. If it is not sold, it will be broken. It will be possible to store it after September. stand up."

【market survey】

The harvest price of garlic fell at 10 am on July 1. After a heavy rain, the market in Xinfa was quiet. In the garlic trading area, there was less bustle and excitement in the past.

Several garlic wholesalers sat in the garlic pile inside the truck compartment. There was a ride without talking about the sky, avoiding sporadic raindrops by the way.

Ma Zhaohong in his early 40s came from the country’s largest garlic trading center—Jinxiang, Shandong Province. The daily trading volume of garlic in Xinfadi market was about 200 tons, of which Ma family accounted for 70 tons. He is the first-ranking garlic wholesaler recognized in this market. .

Every June and July, it is the season when the new garlic is on the market and Chensuan is delisted. A large number of new garlic are purchased in a concentrated manner. “Now it should have been a busy season, but the sales volume of garlic has dropped.” Ma Zhaohong said that he could sell four or five cars a day. Garlic, hundreds of tons, can sell up to three cars a day, 70 tons.

Compared with the decline in sales volume, the price of garlic this year is even more alarming. According to Ma Zhaohong, in Jinxiang, Shandong, the current purchase price of garlic is 0.9 yuan/kg, and in the same period of last year, the garlic purchase price had climbed to more than 5 pieces of money. "The garlic farmers are definitely losing money."

“Last year we went to Jinxiang and couldn’t get garlic. The local dealers were out of stock. They had to go to the garlic farm to collect it, and the price rose every day. This year is all in the opposite direction. The price of garlic is falling every day and it is everywhere in Jinxiang. All cars are full of garlic.” Ma Zhaohong said that every time he went to collect garlic, he did not dare to collect more, because a few days later, the price of garlic fell again, and the wholesale side would suffer losses.

In 2010, the Ma family relied on wholesale garlic to earn more than one million yuan. He said that it will pay several hundred thousand yuan this year.

Wholesalers believe that the root cause of the cheap garlic this year is the harvest of garlic.

Ding Shukuan, a new-founder of the local market, is also a native of Jinxiang, Shandong. Unlike Ma Zhaohong, the garlic he sells is grown in his own family. “Less than 5 acres of garlic was sold very well last year. This year, 10 acres of land were planted. Garlic." Ding Shukuan said that the current price of garlic, an acre to pay 2,000 yuan, 10 acres of land is more than 20,000 yuan. Their family is not a big grower and they have to pay a small amount.

Garlic farmer reluctant to sell and Ding Shukuan is caught in the “small and big year” circle. He is an ordinary member of the hundreds of thousands of garlic farmers in Shandong Jinxiang. This year his family planted garlic on 8 acres of land. The harvest made Wang Zhendong’s family home. Accumulated more than 10 tons of garlic, "too cheap, it is reluctant to sell." Wang Zhendong waiting, hoping that garlic prices can make a turn for the better.

"But at most it will take a month to put it on hold." Wang Zhendong said that the home's garlic must be sold no matter where it is for a month. Wang Zhendong is very puzzled. This year is the year of garlic's most abundant harvest in the past decade or so. "The quality of garlic is good, and the skin is thick, big and impeccable, but nobody buys it."

At the long-distance phone call, the Shandong man asked the reporter: "Do you say that I still put garlic at home? Do you still want to fall?" The garlic grower who cannot see the future can only wait for an unknown result.

It is understood that the country's main producing areas of garlic have appeared in the phenomena of hoarding and reluctant selling. Due to the low price of new garlic, many garlic farmers have piled garlic in their homes and are not in a hurry to sell them. They look forward to garlic prices, then choose to sell.

Ma Zhaohong, who has been in the garlic wholesale business for more than a decade, has no confidence in the price of garlic this year. He said that it is still expected that the decline will continue for two or three months when garlic has not yet reached its peak. Ma Zhaohong believes that the garlic farmer's hoarding and reluctant sellers are unpredictable. Once the garlic farmers are not concentrating, the garlic price may rebound briefly. However, due to seasonal factors, garlic cannot survive at all. In one month, people must concentrate on shipments and may fall even worse.

“We generally start storing goods from September. We will keep a portion of garlic sold this winter and next year. This is what Chen garlic is often called.” Ma Zhaohong said that garlic prices may usher in a turning point in September to stop falling, “but There is only such a possibility, and no one in the market can say it well."

Zhang Yuxi, chairman of the China Agricultural Products Market Association and chairman of the Xinfadi Market, believes that this year's garlic price trend has been set and will not rise in April and May next year. “There is no doubt that this year is a year when garlic prices are rampant. ”

【Cause Analysis】

Information asymmetry caused sudden rise and fall The director of the Agricultural Commission of the City's circulation department Ren Rong believes that the main cause of soaring prices of agricultural products is information asymmetry. This information asymmetry exists between the origin and the place of production, but also between the farmers and the market. , is asymmetric information in multiple directions. Ren Rong, for example, said that garlic farmers in Shandong may know how many garlic crops are grown by people around them, but they do not know that a lot of garlic has been planted throughout the country. Information asymmetry has caused farmers to be passive. Ren Rong said that implementing large-scale production and operation should be the trend of future agriculture. Take, for example, cooperative unions.

Wang Jimin and Ren Rong, research fellows of the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, coincided with each other's views. Wang Jimin believes that the main reason for the cyclical cycle of garlic price spikes and plunges is that information is not disclosed. Local governments or agricultural authorities should publish information on price changes, production, and consumption in a timely manner to ensure that farmers understand the situation comprehensively and improve the quality of farmers. Let farmers understand how to use this information.

Zhang Yuxi, chairman of the China Agricultural Products Market Association and chairman of Xinfadi, was also deeply impressed by this. He recalled that, in 2008, the price of garlic in Shandong was particularly low. “Someone gave us a call in the market and said that you come to pull garlic. Well, Baila. We have pulled back in the past. The gross wholesale price is not enough for freight, and the garlic farmers are even worse.”

"The garlic grower lost money for three consecutive years and nobody dared to plant it. The country's garlic planting area fell to 5 million mu, less than half of the previous year. The result was a soaring price of garlic. This year's planting area has resumed and garlic has been harvested. The supply and demand contradictions have problems.” Zhang Yuxi said that in addition to information asymmetry, relying on the weather to eat is also an important reason for the rise and fall in the price of agricultural products. For example, last year, mung bean expensive, mainly in the three northeastern provinces of the mung bean due to drought, resulting in supply and demand conflicts.

[Expert suggestion]

Agricultural production should increase the cyclical cycle of planned agricultural product prices and the frequent occurrence of “garlic and agricultural injury”. Zhang Yuxi, chairman of Xinfadi Market, believes that in the production process, the government should increase planning. At present, China's agriculture is mainly produced on a small scale. What farmers like to plant this year is just like stocks. It depends on prices. Once the price of garlic is high, the farmers will plant garlic. If the price is low, the farmers will have to plant less. As a result of this non-interference by the government, more and more “garlic, agricultural, and agricultural” phenomena have been caused.

Zhang Yuxi believes that it is necessary to "add a plan" to the existing market economy. He suggested that the government should consider adopting agricultural cooperatives or cooperative organizations to carry out agricultural production. “There should be a professional government department to figure out in advance how much garlic China needs and how many acres of garlic are suitable for the whole year. There is currently no such figure. We can't keep garlic prices like roller coasters for a while, but low for a while. It is the interests of the peasants."

In response to the current decline in garlic, Wang Jimin's researcher suggested that the government should consider intervening in circulation, such as implementing government purchases, garlic reserves, or agricultural super-docking and other forms of centralized procurement to minimize the loss of farmers.

【data analysis】

The price of garlic soared and plunged for 4 years. According to the analysis of Tong Wei from Shuangqiao market statistics, from 2009 to 2010, garlic prices have been running at a high level, leading growers to blindly expand the planting scale and eventually making this year the “big year” for garlic. .

According to official statistics, the garlic planting area in China increased by 20% in 2011 compared with 2010. In Shandong Jinxiangyi County alone, garlic harvested area reached 695,800 mu, which is an increase of 147,000 mu compared to last year, an increase of 26.78%. It increased by 47.6%, setting a record high. The garlic harvest led to oversupply in the market and garlic prices plummeted.

Statistics on sales prices of garlic from Shandong Jinxiang show that in 2006 and 2007, the purchase price of local garlic rose sharply, reaching a maximum of 2.8 yuan/kg. Since 2008, the price of garlic has fallen to the bottom, and the minimum price is only four cents per catty. In 2009 and 2010, garlic prices rose again. Since the beginning of this year, garlic prices have continued to decline.

In line with the garlic purchase price curve of Shandong Jinxiang, the wholesale price of garlic in the new market also showed the same change curve. Since 2005, the price of garlic has been a volatility cycle for about 4 years. It is like riding a roller coaster. In two years, it fell for another two years and it circulated in turn.

A monitoring data from a professional organization shows that in all agricultural products, garlic, ginger, and potatoes have been experiencing a surge of tumultuous wavy patterns over the years.