Based on the analysis of factors such as the bacterial colonization rate of the scab strain, it is expected that the medium-heavy wheat scab in the central Jianghuai region of Anhui Province and its south wheat region will be moderately weighted (natural disease ear rate 10%~30%), in the north of the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River. Most of the wheat crops occur in medium-sized areas (natural disease ear rate: 10% to 20%), and some wheat areas are heavily weighted (natural disease ear rate is 20% to 30%); it is estimated that the entire province will have an area of ​​about 10 million mu. Forecast basis: (1) The prevalence of rice piles in the rice stubs of Fusarium head blight is high in most areas, and the prevalence of rice stalk shells in only a few areas is lower than in recent years. (2) The main wheat cultivars and cultivation methods are generally favorable for the occurrence of head blight. (3) Climatic conditions have a certain inhibitory effect on the occurrence of wheat scab. According to the forecasts of the Anhui meteorological department, precipitation in April in the Huaibei area was close to normal, and the area south of the Huaihe River was less than normal. Future climatic conditions are generally unfavorable to wheat head blight. (4) During the peak period of the ascospores release of pathogenic bacteria, most of the areas in south central Jianghuai and its south will appear around April 20 (pharmaceutical control period), and most of the northern part of Huaihe River and Huaihe River will appear in the middle and late April. (Appropriate drug control period), the peak ascosporosis release of scab fungus bacteria and most of the late maturing wheat in the heading and flowering period of a high degree of agreement.

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