As pork prices have risen steadily and weather is high, residents’ pork consumption demand has begun to decline. July and August are summer holidays, colleges and universities have a holiday, the number of collective consumption in the canteen declines, and the prices of live pigs and pork may be slightly adjusted, but the trend of overall price increase is difficult to reverse.
Although the number of live pigs is recovering, there is still room for rigid rise in the cost of raising pigs.
Since the beginning of 2011, the national pork price has continued to rise, with the gains particularly accelerating since May. As of the end of June, the average wholesale price of fresh pork was 7.9% higher than the historical high in 2008. Business forecasts show that the average wholesale price of fresh pork in the 36 large and medium-sized cities across the country from June 20 to June 26 was 24.68 yuan/kg, up 19.7% from the beginning of May, up 30.6% from the beginning of this year and a substantial increase of 67.9% year-on-year.
Why are pig and pork prices creating new historical highs during the off-season consumption period? Is it supply or cost promotion?
The main reason analysis of the tight supply system is that the shortage of domestic hog supply is the main reason for the current high hog prices, such as Hubei, Guangdong, Shandong, and Jilin. At the same time, the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Commerce all stated that the current rise in pork prices was mainly due to a reduction in the number of farmers and a tight supply and an increase in the cost of raising pigs. Therefore, the main factors that cause tight supply of live pigs:
The number of farmers has decreased. In the first half of 2010, domestic hog prices continued to fall rapidly and there was a loss in farming. Some small and medium-sized farmers were forced to withdraw from the breeding industry. According to statistics, in 2010, the number of pig farmers in Sichuan Province decreased by 8.4% year-on-year; in February of this year, the number of pig farmers in 272 comparable typical villages (groups) in Zhejiang Province decreased by 1.93% year-on-year; in this April, Jiangxi designated 10 pig production monitoring stations ( The number of pig farmers in 100 administrative villages decreased by 6.32% year-on-year.
The expansion of scale farming has slowed. Due to the increase in land lease fees, pressure on environmental protection, and limited sources of funds for enterprise development, the development of large and medium-sized aquaculture companies has slowed down. According to investigations, due to the high risk of loan in livestock industry and the failure of relevant insurance to follow-up, financial institutions have developed a fear of credit. Financing cooperatives or animal husbandry communities and other units or individuals have encountered difficulties in financing. In addition, the increase in the increase in the scale of breeding pigs and the increase in the number of employees' expenses have made bottleneck development of scale farming a bottleneck.
Animal epidemics plague the aquaculture industry. According to the survey, since November 2010, a variety of animal diseases have emerged in major pig producing areas in Sichuan, Hunan, Henan, Shandong, and Guangdong, and piglet deaths have increased. For example, in pig farms in Xiangtan, Hunan, the mortality rate of piglets in some aquaculture companies is as high as 20% to 30%, which affects the number of pigs slaughtered in the first half of the year.
The rise in the cost of raising pigs further increases the reserve price of hogs. Taking the feed corn price as an example, in mid-June, the average purchase price of corn for a thousand aquaculture companies nationwide reached 2.3 yuan/kg, which was 9.5% higher than that at the beginning of the year and was up 11.2% year-on-year, which was higher than the 2008 Spring Festival (the highest price of pigs). 30.7%. In addition, due to the general increase in social prices and the increase in urban minimum wages, the wages of pig farm workers have risen to varying degrees. According to surveys in major producing areas such as Sichuan, Hunan, and Henan Province, it has been found that many farms on large-scale pig farms have suffered from difficulties in employment, and their wages have generally increased by 10% to 20%.
Pork prices "high fever is difficult to retreat"
The rapid increase in pork prices has had an important impact on the pork consumption of both urban and rural residents, and it has received great attention from the Party Central Committee, the State Council and local governments. Although the Ministry of Commerce stated that the regulation of pork prices should be based on the market, with the increase in the number of farmers, the enthusiasm of breeding will increase, and the follow-up pork supply will gradually ease. However, the rapid increase in the price of pork has attracted the “care†of the policy. For example, from June 22, the Liaoning Provincial Government has placed 5,800 tons of frozen meat on the province to protect the market supply and stabilize pork prices.
At the beginning of June, the Ministry of Agriculture issued the “Notice on Doing a Good Job on the Current Live Pig Productionâ€, which is based on six aspects: national policy, large-scale breeding, raising the production level, regulating the market order for breeding pigs, prevention and control of diseases, and issuing policies. Explained.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture's monitoring of 21 pig farms nationwide, the sow sales volume has continued to increase since January this year. In May, it sold 18,000 heads, an increase of 1.0% from the previous month and an increase of 38.2% year-on-year. In May, the number of able sows in the country was 4,710, a year-on-year increase of 0.21 percent, an increase of 0.32 percent from the previous month, and the first increase since the beginning of the year. As the sow's litter size and piglet survival rate have gradually increased, the number of live pigs will continue to increase since the second half of this year. It is believed that the recovery of live pigs in the second half of the year will significantly improve the market supply shortage.
According to surveys conducted by large-scale meat processing companies in Sichuan, Hunan, Henan, and Shandong, the number of live pigs purchased and slaughtered by the company decreased by 40% to 50% due to the relatively tight pig source and the decrease in the turnover rate of funds due to rising purchase prices. %, the level of corporate inventory has also dropped significantly.
As pork prices have risen steadily and weather is high, residents’ pork consumption demand has also begun to decline. According to pork retailers in Beijing's Xinfadi wholesale market, terminal purchases have dropped significantly since pork prices rose. In late June, only four or five pigs were sold each day, a drop of more than half.
July and August are summer holidays, colleges and universities have a holiday, the number of collective consumption in the canteen declines, and the prices of live pigs and pork may be slightly adjusted, but the trend of overall price increase is difficult to reverse.
Although the number of live pigs is recovering, there is still room for rigid rise in the cost of raising pigs. The feed raw material corn has increased rapidly due to the industrial demand, and there is still room for price increase. In addition, the price of piglets has risen rapidly since the beginning of the year, more than doubled from the same period of last year, and will also be reflected in the price of pig slaughter later. In addition, the rising prices of the entire society are all serious. It is expected that prices of live pigs and pork will continue to operate at high levels in the second half of this year. The price of pork will be “high fever and hard to retreatâ€. The prices of live pigs and pork in the fourth quarter are expected to be relatively stable with fluctuations less than the third quarter.
Stable supply of pigs overwhelming There are many uncertainties in the current market: First, animal diseases. According to the survey, due to factors such as droughts and floods, summer heat, and other factors, in late June, pig diseases in Guangdong, Jiangxi, and Hunan were aggravated, and if pigs were not properly controlled, they could exacerbate market fluctuations and cause pig prices to fall significantly. Then rose sharply. The second is policy measures. The provincial government of Liaoning province used reserve frozen meat to regulate the market. The aquaculture company's mentality of reluctant sellers was reduced, and the number of pigs slaughtered increased. From June 24, the national hog price has declined for four consecutive days. If the price of pork rises rapidly, it does not rule out the possibility that government departments in other provinces and cities will use reserve meat to regulate the market.
Looking back at the ups and downs of the domestic hog market in 2007, the shortage and surplus of hog supply are the key factors in determining the price fluctuations of pigs and pork. Stable hog supply is overwhelming. The key to deciding whether to supply more or less is the enthusiasm of the pig farmers and the severity of the epidemic. Apart from the similar environment of inflation, the price of live pigs and pork this year is still very similar to that of 2008: that is, before the sharp rise in prices. Severe diseases occurred in 1 to 2 years. Sow production capacity could not keep up, and the piglet slaughter rate was low.
In addition to the regulation of frozen pork purchasing and storage policies, achieving basic market supply stability in the live pig production process or matching the market supply with seasonal consumption rules will help reduce market price fluctuations.
According to estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture, the proportion of domestically produced 50 or more breeding stocks in 2010 has accounted for 66%. With regard to the current status of domestic pig breeding, the capital strength, epidemic prevention technology, and resistance to loss-making ability of large-scale aquaculture companies are significantly stronger than that of small- and medium-scale aquaculture enterprises. Therefore, effectively stabilizing the scale of hog farming in medium and small-scale farming companies or bringing the speed of small and medium-sized farmers out of the country is basically offset by the growth rate of scale farming, so as not to induce a "major earthquake" in supply. To this end, two suggestions are proposed for the hog farming sector:
Promote farming models that suit the national conditions. Although the rapid development of domestic large-scale breeding has played a significant role in stabilizing live pig production, considering the national conditions, the majority of free-living households will still exist for a long period of time, and 30% of the free-home households will be able to move in and out of the breeding industry. Fast, it is very easy to trigger sharp fluctuations in market supply. Therefore, the linkage of scattered scattered households to provide services and support in the areas of market information, breeding technology, feed purchase, and sales of commodity pigs will help minimize market risks and disease risks, such as the vigorous promotion of “company + farmer householdsâ€. "," "company + base + cooperatives + farmers" and other countries more suitable for the advanced mode of aquaculture.
Explore and establish a suitable insurance mechanism for the pig industry. We will further broaden the insurance for sow-breeding sows and explore fattening pig insurance so that when aquaculture enterprises encounter major diseases or natural disasters, they will be able to follow-up funds and reproduce them in a timely manner.
Although the number of live pigs is recovering, there is still room for rigid rise in the cost of raising pigs.
Since the beginning of 2011, the national pork price has continued to rise, with the gains particularly accelerating since May. As of the end of June, the average wholesale price of fresh pork was 7.9% higher than the historical high in 2008. Business forecasts show that the average wholesale price of fresh pork in the 36 large and medium-sized cities across the country from June 20 to June 26 was 24.68 yuan/kg, up 19.7% from the beginning of May, up 30.6% from the beginning of this year and a substantial increase of 67.9% year-on-year.
Why are pig and pork prices creating new historical highs during the off-season consumption period? Is it supply or cost promotion?
The main reason analysis of the tight supply system is that the shortage of domestic hog supply is the main reason for the current high hog prices, such as Hubei, Guangdong, Shandong, and Jilin. At the same time, the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Commerce all stated that the current rise in pork prices was mainly due to a reduction in the number of farmers and a tight supply and an increase in the cost of raising pigs. Therefore, the main factors that cause tight supply of live pigs:
The number of farmers has decreased. In the first half of 2010, domestic hog prices continued to fall rapidly and there was a loss in farming. Some small and medium-sized farmers were forced to withdraw from the breeding industry. According to statistics, in 2010, the number of pig farmers in Sichuan Province decreased by 8.4% year-on-year; in February of this year, the number of pig farmers in 272 comparable typical villages (groups) in Zhejiang Province decreased by 1.93% year-on-year; in this April, Jiangxi designated 10 pig production monitoring stations ( The number of pig farmers in 100 administrative villages decreased by 6.32% year-on-year.
The expansion of scale farming has slowed. Due to the increase in land lease fees, pressure on environmental protection, and limited sources of funds for enterprise development, the development of large and medium-sized aquaculture companies has slowed down. According to investigations, due to the high risk of loan in livestock industry and the failure of relevant insurance to follow-up, financial institutions have developed a fear of credit. Financing cooperatives or animal husbandry communities and other units or individuals have encountered difficulties in financing. In addition, the increase in the increase in the scale of breeding pigs and the increase in the number of employees' expenses have made bottleneck development of scale farming a bottleneck.
Animal epidemics plague the aquaculture industry. According to the survey, since November 2010, a variety of animal diseases have emerged in major pig producing areas in Sichuan, Hunan, Henan, Shandong, and Guangdong, and piglet deaths have increased. For example, in pig farms in Xiangtan, Hunan, the mortality rate of piglets in some aquaculture companies is as high as 20% to 30%, which affects the number of pigs slaughtered in the first half of the year.
The rise in the cost of raising pigs further increases the reserve price of hogs. Taking the feed corn price as an example, in mid-June, the average purchase price of corn for a thousand aquaculture companies nationwide reached 2.3 yuan/kg, which was 9.5% higher than that at the beginning of the year and was up 11.2% year-on-year, which was higher than the 2008 Spring Festival (the highest price of pigs). 30.7%. In addition, due to the general increase in social prices and the increase in urban minimum wages, the wages of pig farm workers have risen to varying degrees. According to surveys in major producing areas such as Sichuan, Hunan, and Henan Province, it has been found that many farms on large-scale pig farms have suffered from difficulties in employment, and their wages have generally increased by 10% to 20%.
Pork prices "high fever is difficult to retreat"
The rapid increase in pork prices has had an important impact on the pork consumption of both urban and rural residents, and it has received great attention from the Party Central Committee, the State Council and local governments. Although the Ministry of Commerce stated that the regulation of pork prices should be based on the market, with the increase in the number of farmers, the enthusiasm of breeding will increase, and the follow-up pork supply will gradually ease. However, the rapid increase in the price of pork has attracted the “care†of the policy. For example, from June 22, the Liaoning Provincial Government has placed 5,800 tons of frozen meat on the province to protect the market supply and stabilize pork prices.
At the beginning of June, the Ministry of Agriculture issued the “Notice on Doing a Good Job on the Current Live Pig Productionâ€, which is based on six aspects: national policy, large-scale breeding, raising the production level, regulating the market order for breeding pigs, prevention and control of diseases, and issuing policies. Explained.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture's monitoring of 21 pig farms nationwide, the sow sales volume has continued to increase since January this year. In May, it sold 18,000 heads, an increase of 1.0% from the previous month and an increase of 38.2% year-on-year. In May, the number of able sows in the country was 4,710, a year-on-year increase of 0.21 percent, an increase of 0.32 percent from the previous month, and the first increase since the beginning of the year. As the sow's litter size and piglet survival rate have gradually increased, the number of live pigs will continue to increase since the second half of this year. It is believed that the recovery of live pigs in the second half of the year will significantly improve the market supply shortage.
According to surveys conducted by large-scale meat processing companies in Sichuan, Hunan, Henan, and Shandong, the number of live pigs purchased and slaughtered by the company decreased by 40% to 50% due to the relatively tight pig source and the decrease in the turnover rate of funds due to rising purchase prices. %, the level of corporate inventory has also dropped significantly.
As pork prices have risen steadily and weather is high, residents’ pork consumption demand has also begun to decline. According to pork retailers in Beijing's Xinfadi wholesale market, terminal purchases have dropped significantly since pork prices rose. In late June, only four or five pigs were sold each day, a drop of more than half.
July and August are summer holidays, colleges and universities have a holiday, the number of collective consumption in the canteen declines, and the prices of live pigs and pork may be slightly adjusted, but the trend of overall price increase is difficult to reverse.
Although the number of live pigs is recovering, there is still room for rigid rise in the cost of raising pigs. The feed raw material corn has increased rapidly due to the industrial demand, and there is still room for price increase. In addition, the price of piglets has risen rapidly since the beginning of the year, more than doubled from the same period of last year, and will also be reflected in the price of pig slaughter later. In addition, the rising prices of the entire society are all serious. It is expected that prices of live pigs and pork will continue to operate at high levels in the second half of this year. The price of pork will be “high fever and hard to retreatâ€. The prices of live pigs and pork in the fourth quarter are expected to be relatively stable with fluctuations less than the third quarter.
Stable supply of pigs overwhelming There are many uncertainties in the current market: First, animal diseases. According to the survey, due to factors such as droughts and floods, summer heat, and other factors, in late June, pig diseases in Guangdong, Jiangxi, and Hunan were aggravated, and if pigs were not properly controlled, they could exacerbate market fluctuations and cause pig prices to fall significantly. Then rose sharply. The second is policy measures. The provincial government of Liaoning province used reserve frozen meat to regulate the market. The aquaculture company's mentality of reluctant sellers was reduced, and the number of pigs slaughtered increased. From June 24, the national hog price has declined for four consecutive days. If the price of pork rises rapidly, it does not rule out the possibility that government departments in other provinces and cities will use reserve meat to regulate the market.
Looking back at the ups and downs of the domestic hog market in 2007, the shortage and surplus of hog supply are the key factors in determining the price fluctuations of pigs and pork. Stable hog supply is overwhelming. The key to deciding whether to supply more or less is the enthusiasm of the pig farmers and the severity of the epidemic. Apart from the similar environment of inflation, the price of live pigs and pork this year is still very similar to that of 2008: that is, before the sharp rise in prices. Severe diseases occurred in 1 to 2 years. Sow production capacity could not keep up, and the piglet slaughter rate was low.
In addition to the regulation of frozen pork purchasing and storage policies, achieving basic market supply stability in the live pig production process or matching the market supply with seasonal consumption rules will help reduce market price fluctuations.
According to estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture, the proportion of domestically produced 50 or more breeding stocks in 2010 has accounted for 66%. With regard to the current status of domestic pig breeding, the capital strength, epidemic prevention technology, and resistance to loss-making ability of large-scale aquaculture companies are significantly stronger than that of small- and medium-scale aquaculture enterprises. Therefore, effectively stabilizing the scale of hog farming in medium and small-scale farming companies or bringing the speed of small and medium-sized farmers out of the country is basically offset by the growth rate of scale farming, so as not to induce a "major earthquake" in supply. To this end, two suggestions are proposed for the hog farming sector:
Promote farming models that suit the national conditions. Although the rapid development of domestic large-scale breeding has played a significant role in stabilizing live pig production, considering the national conditions, the majority of free-living households will still exist for a long period of time, and 30% of the free-home households will be able to move in and out of the breeding industry. Fast, it is very easy to trigger sharp fluctuations in market supply. Therefore, the linkage of scattered scattered households to provide services and support in the areas of market information, breeding technology, feed purchase, and sales of commodity pigs will help minimize market risks and disease risks, such as the vigorous promotion of “company + farmer householdsâ€. "," "company + base + cooperatives + farmers" and other countries more suitable for the advanced mode of aquaculture.
Explore and establish a suitable insurance mechanism for the pig industry. We will further broaden the insurance for sow-breeding sows and explore fattening pig insurance so that when aquaculture enterprises encounter major diseases or natural disasters, they will be able to follow-up funds and reproduce them in a timely manner.
Guangdong Jia Mei Biological Technology Co.Ltd , https://www.jaymeimask.com